<군중의 지혜> – 그러나, ‘황소’에 천을 둘러 실상을 가렸었다면…

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1906년가을,영국남부플리머스(Plymouth)의장터에서는

‘지난봄여름동안의땀과수고로키워온가축들‘에대한품평회도열리고있었다.

(영국,플리머스)

또,그날장터의다른한편에서는,

<무대에전시된한마리‘황소의체중‘알아맞추기대회>가그곳을찾은사람들의주목을끌고있었다.

(영어원문대로라면,보다처절한단어로‘대회내용’을소개해야하나..,이는피합니다.)

6펜스로살수있는’참가권리증’에’자신의이름과주소,그리고추정하는황소의체중’을기입해제출하면

<그황소의실제체중에’가장근접한수치’를적은사람>이대상을받는대회이었다…

(프랜시스골튼)

한편,마침그장터를,

–<진화론>을발표했던찰스다윈(C.Darwin,1809-82)과‘할아버지는같으나할머니가다른외4촌형제‘로

역시당시유럽사회에다윈만큼이나큰영향을‘수학과심리학‘에미친—

저명한영국과학자‘프랜시스골튼(FrancisGalton,1822-1911)’이산보를하고있었다.

그는,일찌기부터‘인간의신체와정신‘에큰관심을가지고끊임없이연구를한사람으로,

—유감스럽게도,100년전의‘한정된세계경험‘과‘충분히밝혀지지않은정보‘의결과로—

-"우수한인물은우수한가문에서보다많이배출되기쉽다"

(<마음은어떻게유전되는가?心はどのように遺伝さするか>,

안도오쥬꼬오安藤寿康(1958-),2000에서)

-"극히소수의인물만이사회를건전하게유지시킬수있는특성을가지고있으며,

그외다수의많은남녀들은어리석고머리가나빠,그리신뢰할수없다"

onlyaveryfewpeoplehadthecharacteristicsnecessarytokeepsocietieshealthy,

…thestupidityandwrong-headednessofmanymenandwomenbeingsogreat

astobescarcelycredible.

(<군중의지혜TheWisdomofCrowds>,스로위키JamesSurowiecki(1967-),2004)

등,—그후그흉악했던히틀러(1889-1945)도악용했던–<우생학(優生學)>을발표한인물로도유명하다.

그러나,…그런그가85살에이르렀던그해,

하늘은<그산보길에서,그에게’참진리’를배우게하는경험>을준비하고있었다.

*

골튼은,그날

산보중우연히맞닥뜨린<‘황소체중‘을알아맞추는대회>의결과에커다란흥미를느꼈었다.

그장터에와서여기저기를둘러보다‘대회에도참가했던사람들‘이

–물론,가축을기르면서,한눈에동물의체중정도는‘가늠할수있는<‘전문가‘급>인인물도있으나

–마을약국의점원이나공무원등등,즉이에<문외한‘들>도섞여있음을

골튼은금방알아채고는,

한편,당시유럽에일기시작했던<‘성인이면누구나투표권(voters)’을갖는‘보통선거제도‘>에

—그간의자기연구결론으로–완강히반대의견을가졌었던그가

성인이면누구나참가하는이대회에서

<사람들이’얼마나황당하고우스꽝스런’추정수치들을적었었는지>그진상을밝히면,

<’보통선거제’의‘폐해‘도알릴수있는‘좋은예’가될수있다>고은근히기대했었기때문이었다.

그래서,당시이미잘알려졌던이과학자는,

—대회가끝나,황소의체중이밝혀지고또대상이수여된후–,

대회주최측으로부터<참가자800명의‘참가권리증‘을빌려서는>그수치를일일이확인,면밀히분석했었다.

(이과정에서’그중13장은판독하기어려워포기…,실제는‘787장‘을분석했다고한다.)

그결과,

시골장터의대회에참가한사람들이적었던’황소체중추정치’는

—일반통계에서늘확인되는–<종모양의곡선(BellCurve)>로분포를보이며,

<총787명이적었던숫자를다더한후,그’평균’을내보았더니,

–‘그날참가자들앞에전시되었던황소의실제체중,1,198폰드(약543Kg)‘에거의일치,–

불과’0.4Kg’밖에차이가없는‘1,197폰드’였다>는사실은

외려,골튼을크게당혹시켰음은분명하다.

다만,연구자적양심을가진골튼은

–평생에걸친’자신의연구결론’과는너무나다른–이진상이건만,솔직히당시의’영국과학잡지’에보고한다…

TheBellCurve:TheNormalDistribution

**

위의일화는

2004년,<군중의지혜TheWisdomofCrowds>라는책속에서미국저널리스트’스로위키’가소개한것으로,

이를우리말로간략히정리해본것이다.(–>하단의영문참고)

특히나,

그<‘우생학’의원조로,사람능력에큰편견을가졌던것으로악명높기도한프랜시스골튼>의경험.

그런그가말년에직접적은이보고내용을필두로,저자는

<각개인에게는많은한계가있음에도불구하고,’군중의힘’은놀랍다>고주목하며,

"이제더이상군중들을—마녀사냥하듯—몰아내려하지말고,외려,군중들에게의견을물어야한다"

Weshouldstophuntingandaskthecrowd(which,ofcourse,includesthegeniusesaswellas

everyoneelse)instead."

　

라고,결론을적었었다.

다만나는,–그의이’적극적이고낙관적인관점’에동의하나–,

그전에,우리가<결코간과해서는안될요점>을하나주목하지않을수없다.

골튼이지켜본<황소체중알아맞추기대회>에서

<다수의참가자들의제각기달랐던다양한의견들을평균하면,결국’대단히근접한답’이었던이유>는

그<대상인’황소’가–군중들의눈앞에서–‘있는그대로모습,그전부’를드러내고있었기때문>이라는사실이다.

-만약,황소의일부분,

즉,’다리부위’이나’몸통부위’등,<어느한부분에’천을둘러’가렸었다면>,어땠을까?

-행여,황소를’수많은꽃다발’이나’거창한망토’등으로치장시켜

참가자들의<눈에’착각’을유발시켰었다면>,과연’군중의지혜’는제대로발휘되었을까?…

***

"(‘채널A’의)‘김부장의뉴스통’은

지난(5월)6일방송에서경찰이시위대에게폭행을당하는장면등이담긴네장의사진을내보냈습니다.

세월호집회중찍힌사진이라고설명했죠.

하지만이가운데한장은‘2003년한국–칠레자유무역협정(FTA)국회비준’을앞두고열린농민집회때

집회참가자들과경찰이몸싸움을벌이는사진이었고,

다른한장은2008년광우병수입반대촛불집회때경찰이집회참가자들에게발길질을당하는사진입니다.

2003년사진은<오마이뉴스>가,2008년사진은<조선일보>가찍은사진으로드러났습니다…"

(채널A기자들,‘세월호사진조작’프로폐지요구)

▲’김부장의뉴스통’진행자인김광현동아일보소비자경제부장은지난7일방송에서전날잘못된사진에대해사과하고있다.(채널A캡처)

경악스러운일.

어느날,집을나섰던가족이’좌초되어가는배’속에갇혔다…-<해상’사고’>.얼마든지일어날수있다.

그러나,

전국TV시청자가지켜보는3~4시간사이,<300이넘는인명이한꺼번에끊어지는’참사’>는

‘이현대,과학기술이이토록발전한시대’에는결코있을수없다.

-그럼에도,<‘세월호참사’로생명을잃은사람들,또유가족들>에게이렇게횡포를행하는것은

<이미’새로이도래한시대’에일어난참사>임을모르기때문이리라.-‘시대에뒤쳐진’증거이다.

나는,<아직도대상(사실)을’감추고덧붙이는’위선과조작을하는언론들>에의해우롱되어

‘잘못된분별을보이는군중들’을탓하고싶은마음은추호도없다.-나쁘고못난것은,’이언론들’이다.

다만,이들도

오늘날‘OECD조사에서세계최상의기술보유’가인정된<한국젊은세대들의눈>만은농락하지못한다.

아~자랑스럽다.한국젊은이들

OECD_Skills_Outlook_2013

–이젊은이들이<‘한국사회의중견’이되는시기>에는

소위’조중동’이라지칭되는언론들은<현상황의모습으로는연명되지못할것>은분명하다.

이렇게<임박하고있는’한국근미래’>를읽지못하고,

여전히<‘구습’을반복하며,’거짓과조작의선두’에서는>’시대착오속의보수언론들’이안타깝다.

–누구보다도‘우물안개구리‘이다.

과거에는’거짓이통하고,부정비리를감출수있었으나’

‘그런시대’는이미끝났다…

한편,언론사내부에서도’구습을버리려는움직임’은일어나고있다.

‘채널A’안에다음과같은성명문을발표했다는’61인의기자들‘은,

적어도<‘도래하고있는시대‘를의식하는이들>이다.-이들은‘개구리들‘을넘어서고싶어한다.

–이들을응원한다.’이들이바로설수있어야‘동아일보도연명이가능한것은물론이다.

지난5월6일채널A의시사프로그램‘김부장의뉴스통’에선12년전사진을세월호집회중찍힌

폭력장면이라는오보를냈습니다.보도와함께‘단독입수:세월호시위대경찰폭행사진’이라는

자막이붙여졌죠.이에채널A소속기자61명이프로그램을폐지하고재발을방지하는대책을

마련할것을요구하고나섰습니다.

<이하성명서전문>
채널A보도본부기자들은지난6일‘뉴스통’프로그램에서[단독입수]’세월호시위대경찰폭행사진‘

오보사태로큰상처를받은세월호유가족들에게진심어린사과를드립니다.

정확한사실확인을가장기본으로삼아야하는보도의원칙이지켜지지못했습니다.

보도본부구성원인저희들도책임에서자유로울수없습니다.

이번사태는채널A<보도본부시스템>이만들어낸참사입니다.

시청률이뉴스의질을대변하게된상황에서그누구도상식이하의보도를걸러내지못하고있습니다.
공장에서찍어내듯방송을하는기자ㆍPDㆍ작가누구하나팩트를검토할최소한의시간조차없는겁니다.

또현장기자의사소한보고조차‘단독’과‘특종’을붙여우리스스로를갉아먹고있습니다.


보도본부기자들은더이상똑같은과오를범하지않기위해처절한내부반성과함께

다음과같은대책을회사측에요구하며월요일(11일)까지성의있는답변을기다리겠습니다.

1.철저한원인규명과책임있는사과

2.해당프로그램폐지와문제된출연자영구퇴출

3.재발방지대책마련및시행
–모든보도프로그램에서진행자와총괄책임자분리등

채널A보도본부기자

(음악은Y-tube,사진은Google에서)

*******

<참고>

<군중의지혜>에서,저자스로위키가적었던’프랜시스골튼의일화'(TheWisdomofCrowds)

Onedayinthefallof1906,theBritishscientistFrancisGaltonlefthishomeinthetownofPlymouthandheadedforacountryfair.Galtonwasbeginningtofeelhisage,buthewasstillbrimmingwiththecuriositythathadwonhimrenown—andnotoriety—forhisworkonstatisticsandscienceofheredity.Andonthatparticularday,whatGaltonwascuriousaboutwaslivestock….

Galton’sdestinationwastheannualWestofEnglandFatStockandPoultryExhibition,aregionalfairwherethelocalfarmersandtownspeoplegatheredtoappraisethequalityofeachother’scattle,sheep,chickens,andpigs.Wanderingthroughrowsofstallsexaminingworkhorsesandprizehogsmayseemtohavebeenastrangewayforascientist(especiallyanelderlyone)tospendanafternoon,buttherewasacertainlogictoit.Galtonwasamanobsessedwithtwothings:themeasurementofphysicalandmentalqualities,andbreeding.Andwhat,afterall,isalivestockshowbutabigshowcasefortheeffectsofgoodandbadbreeding?

BreedingmatteredtoGaltonbecausehebelievedthatonlyaveryfewpeoplehadthecharacteristicsnecessarytokeepsocietieshealthy.Hehaddevotedmuchofhiscareertomeasuringthosecharacteristics,infact,inordertoprovethatthevastmajorityofpeopledidnothavethem.AttheInternationalExhibitionof1884inLondon,forinstance,hesetupan“AnthropometricLaboratory,”whereheuseddevicesofhisownmakingtotestexhibition-goerson,amongotherthings,their“KeennessofSightandofHearing,ColourSense,JudgmentofEye,(and)ReactionTime”Hisexperimentslefthimwithlittlefaithintheintelligenceoftheaverageperson,“thestupidityandwrong-headednessofmanymenandwomenbeingsogreatastobescarcelycredible.”Onlyifpowerandcontrolstayedinthehandsoftheselect,well-bredfew,Galtonbelieved,couldasocietyremainhealthyandstrong.

Ashewalkedthroughtheexhibitionthatday,Galtoncameacrossaweight-judgingcompetition.Afatoxhadbeenselectedandplacedondisplay,andmembersofagatheringcrowdwerelininguptoplacewagersontheweightoftheox.(Orrather,theywereplacingwagersonwhattheweightoftheoxwouldbeafterithadbeen“slaughteredanddressed.)Forsixpence,youcouldbuyastampedandnumberedticket,whereyoufilledinyourname,youraddressandyourestimate.Thebestguesseswouldreceiveprizes.

800peopletriedtheirluck.Theywereadiverselot.Manyofthemwerebutchersandfarmers,whowerepresumablyexpertatjudgingtheweightoflivestock,buttherewerealsoquiteafewpeoplewhohad,asitwere,noinsiderknowledgeofcattle.“Manynon-expertscompeted,”GaltonwrotelaterinthescientificjournalNature,“likethoseclerksandotherswhohavenoexpertknowledgeofhorses,butwhobetonraces,guidedbynewspapers,friends,andtheirownfancies.”Theanalogytoademocracy,inwhichpeopleofradicallydifferentabilitiesandinterestseachgetonevote,hadsuggesteditselftoGaltonimmediately.“Theaveragecompetitorwasprobablyaswellfittedformakingajustestimateofthedressedweightoftheox,asanaveragevoterisofjudgingthemeritsofmostpoliticalissuesonwhichhevotes,”hewrote.

Galtonwasinterestedinfiguringoutwhatthe“averagevoter”wascapableofbecausehewantedtoprovethattheaveragevoterwascapableofverylittle.Soheturnedthecompetitionintoanimpromptuexperiment.

Whenthecontestwasoverandtheprizeshadbeenawarded,Galtonborrowedtheticketsfromtheorganizersandranaseriesofstatisticaltestonthem.Galtonarrangedtheguesses(whichtotaled787inall,afterhehadtodiscard13becausetheywereillegible)inorderfromhighesttolowestandgraphedthemtoseeiftheywouldformabellcurve.Then,amongotherthings,headdedallthecontestants’estimates,andcalculatedthemeanofthegroup’sguesses.Thatnumberrepresented,youcouldsay,thecollectivewisdomofthePlymouthcrowd.Ifthecrowdwereasingleperson,thatwashowmuchitwouldhaveguessedtheoxweighed.

Galtonundoubtedlythoughtthattheaverageguessofthegroupwouldbewayoffthemark.Afterall,mixafewverysmartpeoplewithsomemediocrepeopleandalotofdumbpeopleanditseemslikelyyou’dendupwithadumbanswer.

ButGaltonwaswrong.Thecrowdhadguessedthattheox,afterithadbeenslaughteredanddressed,wouldweigh1,197pounds.Afterithadbeenslaughteredanddressed,theoxweighed1,198pounds.

Inotherwords,thecrowd’sjudgmentwasessentiallyperfect.Perhapsbreedingdidnotmeansomuchafterall.Galtonwrotelater:“Theresultseemsmorecreditabletothetrustworthinessofademocraticjudgmentthanmighthavebeenexpected.”Thatwas,tosaytheleast,anunderstatement.

*

WhatFrancisGaltonstumbledonthatdayinPlymouthwasthesimple,butpowerfultruththatisattheheartofhisbook:undertherightcircumstances,groupsareremarkablyintelligent,andareoftensmarterthanthesmartestpeopleinthem.Groupsdonotneedtobedominatedbyexceptionallyintelligentpeopleinordertobesmart.

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