나토군의최고위급대응이러시아공군기가
터키영공을침범한사태에대해나왔는데,그게중요한쟁점이다.
그러나문제는서방측이시리아영공의통제권을잃었다는사실에있다.
NATO’sover-the-topreactiontoaminorviolationbyaRussianaircraftofTurkey’s
airspaceunderscoresthekeypointabouttheRussianmilitarydeployment.
TheWesthaslostcontroloftheskiesofSyria.
시리아영공의통제권쟁탈전은
러시아군의수호이30전투기와수호이34전투기의배치로인해서바뀌었다.
처음에수호이34가필요없을것이라예측했던나의추정은틀렸다.
그것들은터키공군의F16s전투기에수호이30이대항한것이고,
이스라엘군이가진F15s과F16s에대해서는
수호이34가대항한것이기때문이다.
이전에시리아공군은감히공습작전을꿈도꾸지못했다.
왜냐햐면터키와이스라엘의전투기에대항할
수준이되질못했기때문이다.
이제러시아공군의막강한화력에힘입어서
시리아공군기는전선에마구출격한다.
러시아군이뒤를봐주기에더이상은겁날게없기때문이다.
WhenIfirstdiscussedtheline-upofRussianaircraftinSyriaIsaid
thefourSU30fighterswereintendedtoprovidetopcoverforthestrikeforce.
IalsospeculatedthesixSU34swerenotreallyneeded,
andthattheyweretheretotesttheminacombatenvironment.
IwasrightabouttheSU30s;IwaswrongabouttheSU34s.
Ioverlookedthefactthataswellasbeingaformidablestrikeandgroundattackaircraft,
theSU34isanextremelycapableairtoairfighter.
InthisitdiffersfundamentallyfromtheSU24,whichitisreplacing.
ThecombinedtotaloftenSU30sandSU34sprovidestheRussianswithaformidableairdefencegroup.
WhilsttheSU34isnotaspotentafighterasthesupermanoeuvrableSU30,
itismorethanamatchfortheF16sthatmakeupthebulkoftheTurkishairforce,
andisamatchfortheF15sandF16softheIsraeliairforce.
Thisisimportantbecause,astheincidentontheTurkishbordershows,
theRussianstrikegroupiscarryingoutairstrikesinareasclosetotheTurkishandIsraeliborderswhere,
becauseoffearsofinterventionbytheTurkishandIsraeliairforces,
theSyrianairforcehadpreviouslynotdaredtogo.
ThisinclucesstrikesonRaqqa-theIslamicState’sdefactocapital-andIdlib,
bothwithineasydistanceoftheTurkishborder.
ThepresenceoftheSU30sandSU34smeansthattheRussians-unlike
theSyrians-cancarryoutthesestrikeswithoutfearinginterferencebytheTurkishairforce.
ThismeansthatforthefirsttimeintheSyrianwarthereisnopartofSyriawhere
theIslamicStateorotherIslamicmilitiascanhidefromairstrikes.
Thisdramaticallychangesthemilitarypicture.
ItwaspartlybecausetheSyrianairforcewasafraidtooperatenear
theTurkishborderthattheSyrianarmywasdrivenoutofplaceslikeRaqqaandIdlib,
andwhyithasbeenonthedefensiveinthenorthofSyria,
intheterritoriesnorthandwestofAleppo,
whicharewithineasyrangeofTurkishF16aircraftoperatingfrombasesinsideTurkey.
SomereportssuggestthepresenceoftheRussianaircrafthasevenemboldened
Syrianaircrafttoreenterthisairspace.
TherearereportsthatTurkishF16sflyingduringtheweekendnear
theSyrianborderweretracked(or“painted”)for6minutesbytheradarofaMiG29fighter.
TheRussianstrikegroupdoesnotincludeMiG29s.
IfthisincidentreallytookplacetheMiG29musthavebeenaSyrianfighter.
ThetenSU30sandSU34sareonlypartoftheairdefenceforcetheRussianshavepositionedinSyria.
TheairbaseinLatakiaisdefendedfromairattackbyPantsirairdefencesystems.
ThePantsirisamobileshort-rangedairdefencesystem,
combining30mmantiaircraftcannonsandshortrangeantiaircraftmissiles.
Itisstandardequipmentforthepointdefenceofairbases,
anditsdeploymenthasnogreatersignificancethanthis.
Offargreatersignificance,andthebiggame-changer,
isthedeploymentofRussia’smissilecruiserMoskvaofftheSyriancoast.
TheMoskvahasextremelypowerfulairdefenceradars,
andisequippedwithpowerfullongrangeanti-aircraftmissilesbasedontheS300system.
ThereisnoevidencetheRussianshavedeployedS300missilesinSyriaitself.
HoweverthepresenceoftheMoskvaofftheSyriancoastgivesthemessentiallythesamecapability.
TheMoskva’sS300missilesarebelievedtohavearangeof90-150km.
Whilstapparentlynotoneofthemoresophisticatedversionsof
theS300-whichshouldproperlybeseenasafamilyofmissiles-theS300scarriedby
theMoskvaarenonethelesspowerfulweapons,providingaformidableairdefencecapability.
Thereasonforthepresenceoftheseairdefencesystems-theSU30andSU34aircraft,
andtheMoskvawithitsS300missiles-isnowclear.
ThearticleintheFinancialTimesIattachbelowconfirmswhatmanyhadalreadysuspected:
thattheUSwasonthevergeofdeclaringano-flyzoneoverSyria.
ThoughthesupposedtargetwastheIslamicState,
sincetheIslamicStatehasnoairforcetheactualtargetwasclearlytheSyriangovernment.
ItappearsthatasimilarscenariototheoneusedinLibyain2011wasbeingplanned:
thedeclarationofano-flyzone,followedbyasustainedbombingcampaignagainst
theSyrianarmyintendedtodelivervictorytotheUSbackedSyrianopposition.
Thedeclaredpurposeoftheno-flyzone-tofighttheIslamicState-wasmerelycover.
ThisexplainstheRussiandeployment.
TheRussiansobviouslyfoundoutabouttheUSplan,
andrushedtocarryouttheirowndeploymentinordertopre-emptit.
Thattheywereabletodosodespitehaving-unliketheUS-noairbasesin
theregionisremarkable,andisfurtherproofoftheRussians’repeatedlyshownability
toactwithlightningspeed,catchingtheUSoff-balance.
Previousoccasionswhenthishappenedwerethe2008Georgiawarandthe2014Crimeanoperation.
ThattheRussiansfoundoutabouttheUSplanalsoshowshowhighthequalityoftheirintelligencehasbecome.
ThearticleintheFinancialTimesshowstheextentofthedismayinWashington,
withthegrudgingadmission-despitethehystericaldemandsforactionby
thewarhawks-thattheplanforano-flyzone“isnowimpossibletoenact”.
ConsiderthiscommenttheFinancialTimesattributestoNATO’smilitarychief,GeneralBreedlove:
“Nato’ssuprememilitarycommanderinEurope,USGeneralPhillipBreedlovewarnedlastweek
thatthealliancewas“worriedaboutanotherA2/ADbubblebeingcreatedintheeasternMediterranean.
”A2/ADstandsforanti-access,areadenial.”
InotherwordstheRussianshavemanagedtodenytheUSaccesstotheskiesoverSyria,
thwartingtheirplanforano-flyzone,
andforabombingcampaigntoforcetheoverthrowoftheSyriangovernment.
TheFinancialTimesquotessourcesthatdescribetheRussiandeploymenttoSyriaasa
“disaster”,showingthedismayUSandWesternleadersfeel.
TheRussiandeploymenttoSyriahasdramaticallychangedthegeopoliticalpicture.
Itshowsthat25yearsaftertheUSSRfell,theRussiansuperpowerisback.
ThefollowingarticlewaspublishedintheFinancialTimes:
MoscowscuppersUScoalitionplansforno-flyzoneinSyria
Russia’sbombingofanti-regimerebelsinSyriahasbeen
describedasadisasterfortheUS-ledcoalition’seffortstodestroyIsis,theIslamistmilitantgroup,
buttheKremlin’srealchallengetoWashingtonisintheskiesabovethewar-torncountry.
AlongsideamodestLatakia-basedcontingentoftwodozenSu-24Fencer
andSu-25Frogfootjets—planesdesignedtostrikelandtargets—
Moscowhasdeployedassetswhichrendertheprospectofno-flyzonesenforcedby
theUSoritsalliesoverSyriaimpossibletoenact.
Justweeksago,aftermonthsofdiplomacy,
officialswereclosetoanagreementonenforcingaerialsafe-zonestoendtheAssadregime’sbombing
ofciviliansinnorthernandsouthernSyria,accordingtodiplomatsandmilitaryofficialsintheUS-ledcoalition.
TheagreementwasbasedonJordanianandTurkishplanspresentedearlierthisyear.
Manyofficialsbelieveanimminentmovetorampupcoalitionactivity
inSyriaprecipitatedtheKremlin’ssuddeninterventionlatelastmonth.
“TheultimatereasonallthisishappeningisbecauseoftherenewedfocusonSyria
andtheneedforsomesortofpoliticalsolutionthere—
somethingwhichwethoughtwecouldachievebyenforcingno-flyzones,safezones,”
saidoneseniorEuropeandiplomat.
Butanyhopesofmilitaryco-ordinationwithRussiatoachievethis,
eveninthewakeofitsdisruptivedeployment,areswiftlybeingdashed.
Nato’ssuprememilitarycommanderinEurope,
USGeneralPhillipBreedlovewarnedlastweekthatthealliancewas
“worriedaboutanotherA2/ADbubblebeingcreatedintheeasternMediterranean.”
A2/ADstandsforanti-access,areadenial.
GenBreedlove’sfearshavebeenrealisedinthepastdaysas
Russia’ssmalldeploymentoffourSu-30“flanker”jets,
whichareatLatakia’sBasselal-Assadairbase—highlymanoeuvreableaircraftdesigned
toshootdownotheraircraft—hasbeenaugmentedwithafarmorepowerfularsenal.
Russia’sministryofdefenceannouncedonFridaythedeploymentofitsnavycruisertheMoskvatoLatakia.
TheMoskvaisarmedwithacomplementof64S-300ship-to-airmissiles,
Russia’smostpowerfulanti-aircraftweapon.
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북한,당창건70주년보고대회…"김정은목숨으로사수!"
입력:2015.10.09.21:10수정:2015.10.09.21:15-차지연
북한이9일노동당창건70주년을기념하는중앙보고대회를열었다.
북한조선중앙TV는평양체육관에서열린중앙보고대회를이날오후
6시34분부터47분가량녹화중계했다.
대회에는김영남최고인민회의상임위원장,황병서군총정치국장,
박봉주내각총리와김기남·김양건·최룡해·곽범기·오수용·최태복·김평해당비서,
양형섭최고인민회의상임위원회부위원장,김철만,리영길총참모장,
리용무·오극렬국방위원회부위원장등이참석했다.
북한,당창건70주년중앙보고대회개최(서울=연합뉴스)
북한은9일노동당창건70주년을기념하는중앙보고대회를열었다.
조선중앙TV는이날평양체육관에서열린중앙보고대회를
오후6시30분부터녹화중계했다.2015.10.9nkphoto@yna.co.kr
북한,당창건70주년중앙보고대회개최(서울=연합뉴스)북한은9일
노동당창건70주년을기념하는중앙보고대회를열었다.
조선중앙TV는이날평양체육관에서열린중앙보고대회를
오후6시30분부터녹화중계했다.
2015.10.9nkphoto@yna.co.kr
태종수함경남도당책임비서,
로두철내각부총리,김원홍국가안전보위부장,
조연준당제1부부장,김수길평양시당책임비서와
당창건70주년기념행사대표,해외대표단등도함께자리했다.
보고자로나선김영남상임위원장은
"조선노동당은70년에걸친장구한기간
위대한수령과위대한영도자를모시고
